Believing Bullshit, by Stephen Law

A couple of highlights from my read through of Stephen Law's Believing Bullshit.

"Any given set of observations can be explained by a number of theories. To use the jargon of the philosophy of science: theories are underdetermined by the evidence."

" as we'll see later in “But It Fits!” any theory, no matter how nuts, can be made to “fit”—be consistent with—the evidence, given sufficient ingenuity. It doesn't follow that all theories are equally reasonable, or that we can never fairly conclusively settle the question of which among competing theories are true on the basis of observational evidence."

"Many belief systems often start with a mystery—they offer to explain what might otherwise seem rather baffling."

"Putting these various points together, we can sum up by saying that, in order for a theory to be strongly confirmed, that theory has to stick its neck out with respect to the evidence. It has to be bold, to risk being proved wrong. If a theory either fails to make any predictions, or if it makes only vague and woolly predictions, or else if it predicts things that are not particularly unexpected anyway—if, in short, it takes no significant risks with the evidence—then not only is it not strongly confirmed, it can't be."

"amazing coincidences are inevitable. There are billions of people living on this planet, each experiencing thousands of events each day. Inevitably, some of them are going to experience some really remarkable coincidences." 

Believing Bullshit is all about the 'dirty tricks' people can play in presenting their theories and ideas to you, and how to spot these tricks and respond to them. If this sounds vaguely interesting it is well worth a read.

You may also be interested in Law's blog.